美联储加息25个基点十年来第二次加息--大江法律服务网官网-www.flfww148.com

美国联邦公开市场委员会在这份声明中指出，自今年早些时候以来，通货膨胀已有所上升，但仍旧继续低于该委员会2%的长期目标；最近几个月中以市场为基础的通胀补偿指标已大幅上升，但仍旧保持在较低水平。声明称，考虑到已实现及预期的就业市场状况和通货膨胀，联邦公开市场委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至0.50%至0.75%。

今天的加息在11月就业报告公布后就几乎没了悬念。摩根大通表示，此前最后一个加息障碍是美国11月非农就业报告，但如今障碍已清除。

美联储的最新经济评估如下：10月会议以来的资讯表明，美国多数地区经济继续扩张，整体物价水平有轻微上行压力，工资水平温和上涨，就业岗位继续增加，部分地区就业市场更为紧俏，商品零售、房地产市场和商业服务活动持续升温。大多数地区储备银行预计所辖区域未来经济前景乐观，有一半地区表示将保持温和增长势头。

美国强劲的经济数据、美联储多位官员呼吁年内加息，加之特朗普新政提升了经济和通胀预期，使得美联储本次加息毫无悬念。联邦基金利率(即美国的基准利率)期货的最新定价早已显示，今日美联储加息的概率接近100%。

美国券商Charles Schwab认为，美联储本次加息对市场的冲击将比去年12月加息所造成的冲击要小，因目前全球经济状况较去年已有所改善，且面临的不确定性较少，加上欧洲央行和日本央行可能逐步削弱货币政策宽松力度，也压缩了美元的升值空间，这都将使投资者对本次加息的反应较为温和。

分析师们表示，加息25个基点至0.5%-0.75%已经变得有些索然无味，不仅是因为加息已被期待得太久，还因为市场出现了更重要的—投资者等待且渴求特朗普的减税承诺以及财政刺激包裹。

美西银行的首席经济学家安德森(Scott Anderson)表示，特朗普胜选以及共和党横扫参众两院使得市场发生了180度的转变。市场正在关注政策变化可能带来的影响。他认为，一些情况下，美联储对市场的影响力将不及从前，因为某种程度上，美联储加息路径符合市场预期。

ICBC标准银行分析师Tom Kendall表示，“在目前状况下，美联储声明比实施加息还重要，因为市场已经广泛预期此次会议将会加息了。现在市场关注的是2017年美联储政策将如何走的问题。”

路透对逾120名分析师的调查显示，美联储料将在2017年第二季和第四季继续加息，把联邦基金利率调升至1.00-1.25%，与美联储决策者的预估相近。

以下是美联储12月份货币政策声明的全文：

自联邦公开市场委员会11月份召开会议以来所收到的信息表明，就业市场已继续增强，经济活动自年中以来一直都在以稳健的步伐扩张。最近几个月中就业增长一直都很稳健，失业率已有所下降。家庭支出一直都在稳健增长，但企业固定投资则一直保持疲软。自今年早些时候以来，通货膨胀已有所上升，但仍旧继续低于联邦公开市场委员会2%的长期目标，这部分反映了能源价格早前的下跌以及非能源进口产品价格的下跌。整体而言，最近几个月中以市场为基础的通胀补偿指标已大幅上升，但仍旧保持在较低水平；大多数以调查报告为基础的长期通胀预期指标则基本保持不变。

联邦公开市场委员会正在依据其法定使命来寻求培育最大就业和物价稳定。联邦公开市场委员会目前预计，通过逐步调整货币政策立场的方式，经济活动将以稳健的步伐扩张，就业市场状况将进一步在某种程度上有所增强。预计通胀率将在中期上升至2%，原因是能源和进口产品价格此前下跌的暂时性影响将会消散，就业市场则将进一步增强。经济前景的近期风险看似大致平衡。联邦公开市场委员会将继续密切监控通货膨胀指标以及全球经济和金融形势的发展。

考虑到已实现及预期的就业市场状况和通货膨胀，联邦公开市场委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至0.50%至0.75%。货币政策立场仍将保持宽松，从而为就业市场状况的进一步改善和通货膨胀重返2%提供支持。

为了判定联邦基金利率目标区间未来调整的时机选择和规模，联邦公开市场委员会将对有关其最大就业和2%通货膨胀目标的已实现和预期经济状况进行评估。这种评估将把一系列广泛的信息考虑在内，包括有关就业市场状况的指标、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、以及有关金融和国际形势发展的读数等。鉴于目前通货膨胀尚未达到2%的形势，联邦公开市场委员会将仔细监控朝向通货膨胀目标的实际和预期将有的进展。联邦公开市场委员会预计，经济状况的发展仅可令其有理由逐步上调联邦基金利率；在一段时间之内，联邦基金利率很可能仍将保持在低于长期普遍值的水平。但是，联邦基金利率的实际道路将依赖于未来数据所表明的经济前景。

联邦公开市场委员会将维持现有的政策，将来自于所持机构债和机构抵押贷款支持债券的本金付款再投资到机构抵押贷款支持债券中去，在国债发售交易中对即将到期的美国国债进行展期，并预计直到联邦基金利率水平的正常化进程顺利展开以前都将继续这样做。这项政策令联邦公开市场委员会的长期债券持有量保持在可观的水平，应可有助于保持融通的金融状况。

在此次会议上投票支持联邦公开市场委员会货币政策行动的委员有：主席珍妮特·耶伦（Janet L. Yellen）、副主席威廉·杜德利（William C. Dudley）、莱尔·布莱恩纳德（Lael Brainard）、詹姆斯·布拉德（James Bullard）、斯坦利·费希尔（Stanley Fischer）、埃丝特·乔治（Esther L. George）、洛丽塔·梅斯特（Loretta J. Mester）、杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome H. Powell）、埃里克·罗森格伦（Eric Rosengren）和丹尼尔·塔鲁洛（Daniel K. Tarullo）。

以下是美联储声明英文全文：

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.